16 / Published research
Research
Reports, commentary and company notes published with 6:05 Markets on oil, gas, refining and the routes that connect them. Dated price views from these reports are scored against the market in Views and outcomes, including any that miss.
In progress
Independent research in development with the founder of Energy Flux, examining why Henry Hub natural gas prices have remained subdued despite record US LNG feedgas demand. Intended for publication.
In progress · Energy Flux · Natural gas & LNG
16 pieces published from March 2026 to November 2026. By month: March 1, April 3, May 6, June 0, July 1, August 1, September 1, October 2, November 1.
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16 pieces
Report
Are US Crude Inventories Running Low, and What Does It Mean?
In October 2026, US crude stocks were below their seasonal norm and falling when they usually build. This team report examines refinery runs, trade and production, and why low inventories alone do not establish a shortage.
Report
Crude Is Returning. Diesel Isn’t: The Distillate Bottleneck in Global Oil Markets
By October 2026, Middle Eastern crude exports had nearly recovered, but diesel remained scarce. The report traces the bottleneck to refining and delivery capacity, and explains why product markets could take longer to normalise.
Report
Panama Canal: El Niño Risks Raising Asia’s Energy Import Costs
Drought restrictions at Panama could compound an already tight energy market. The report traces the effect of fewer transits through freight costs to Asian LNG and LPG prices, with crude oil a secondary channel.
Report
Oil Above 100 is a Real Supply Shock but NOT a Permanent Price Regime
Oil above US$100 reflected a real supply loss. My September 2026 report argues that the futures curve, weakening demand and alternative supply routes still pointed to lower prices through 2027.
Report
Why Russian Oil Is Regaining Pricing Power
A tighter physical market narrowed the discount on Russian Urals crude. The report argues that the change was cyclical, driven by Asian demand, disrupted competing supply and adaptation to sanctions.
Report
Why the Oil Market Is Mispricing Risk in Hormuz
Reopening Hormuz did not remove the costs of disrupted shipping. The report examines tanker availability, insurance and delayed cargoes, arguing that crude prices had discounted a smoother recovery than physical conditions supported.
Company note
TotalEnergies: Cash Returns in a Volatile Energy Market
TotalEnergies’ first-quarter 2026 results showed the breadth of its cash generation. This company note examines the case for dividends and buybacks, and the commodity, refining and political risks that could weaken it.
Commentary
The Illusion of Energy Security: A Critique of the UK Government’s Energy Policy
Can the UK’s clean-power strategy reduce its exposure to global energy prices? This commentary examines the delivery risks and argues that the approach to North Sea licensing is the policy’s weakest point.
Report
Hormuz Under Fire: Iran’s Strike on UAE Oil Infrastructure and the New Gulf Risk Premium
Iran’s strikes on Fujairah extended oil-supply risk beyond the Strait of Hormuz to the infrastructure that bypasses it. The report assesses the remaining export routes and near-term price scenarios.
Report
Powerless in the Caribbean: Cuba’s Energy Collapse and the Fight for Economic Survival
Cuba’s fuel shortage and ageing grid threaten prolonged blackouts. The report traces the regional implications: tighter Caribbean fuel markets, with little direct effect on global oil benchmarks.
Report
The Dangote Effect: How One Refinery Is Reshaping African Energy
Dangote could turn Nigeria from a fuel importer into a regional supplier. The report sets out three scenarios for the refinery, shaped by access to crude, regulation and operating reliability.
Report
UAE Leaves OPEC: A Quota Dispute Becomes a Market Structure Shock
With Hormuz constraining Gulf exports, the UAE’s OPEC exit was a longer-term supply story. The report examines the implications for quota discipline, spare capacity and Saudi Arabia’s response.
Company note
Chevron’s Venezuela Asset Swap: Strategic Repositioning Towards Heavy Oil
Chevron’s asset swap exchanges gas interests for more Venezuelan heavy oil. This company note weighs the fit with its refining business against sanctions, legal uncertainty and weak infrastructure.
Report
European Wind Power: Energy Security, Industrial Sovereignty and Resilience Beyond Decarbonisation
Wind power’s role in Europe extends beyond decarbonisation. The report examines how France, Germany and the UK are using it to strengthen energy security and domestic supply chains.
Company note
Phillips 66: Oil Price Spike Drives Nearly US$900 Million in Q1 Losses
Why did Phillips 66 expect nearly US$900 million in losses as oil prices surged? The note examines its derivatives exposure and whether the hit represented a temporary dislocation or a wider earnings problem.
Report
Saudi Crude Rerouting to Yanbu After the Hormuz Disruption
Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline offers an alternative to Hormuz, but cannot replace all the lost flow. The report assesses the limits at Yanbu and the risks transferred to the Red Sea.
No research matches that search.
Views and outcomes
2 assessed · 2 inside the range · 0 missed · 7 still open
None so far.
From Crude Is Returning. Diesel Isn’t: The Distillate Bottleneck in Global Oil Markets
New York Harbor ULSD spot (EIA)
Entry 5.102 US$/gal ·
Target avg 4.50–4.75 US$/gal ·
From Panama Canal: El Niño Risks Raising Asia’s Energy Import Costs
Baltic Exchange BLNG3 spot rate
Entry 29,400 US$/day ·
Target 70,000–90,000 US$/day ·
Baltic BLPG3 freight futures
Entry 283.33 US$/t ·
Target 350–400 US$/t ·
JKM LNG spot (Platts)
Entry 25.71 US$/MMBtu ·
Target 27–31 US$/MMBtu ·
Open
Current 31.35 US$/MMBtu · Indicative
Move +5.64 US$/MMBtu (+21.94%)
From Oil Above 100 is a Real Supply Shock but NOT a Permanent Price Regime
Brent futures, front month
Entry 104.61 US$/bbl ·
Target 95–115 US$/bbl ·
Brent futures, front month (BZ=F)
Entry 104.61 US$/bbl ·
Target ≤ 115 US$/bbl ·
Brent futures, front month
Entry 104.61 US$/bbl ·
Target 85–100 US$/bbl ·
Brent futures, front month (2027 average of daily closes)
Entry 104.61 US$/bbl ·
Target avg 70–90 US$/bbl ·
From Why the Oil Market Is Mispricing Risk in Hormuz
Brent futures, front month (BZ=F)
Entry 71.99 US$/bbl ·
Target ≥ 82 US$/bbl ·
Prices auto-refresh on weekdays; dates show the observation. JKM CFD quotes are indicative. Forecasts are assessed at their due dates; averages use the full period.
Methodology and benchmark notes
Every published call and dated base-case benchmark view is included, including misses. Duplicate calls appear once. Entries are publication references, not executed trades. Moves are price changes, not forecast verdicts. Brent uses front-month futures. Related spot or indicative points are chart context; outcomes use the stated benchmark. Daily and weekly sources keep their actual observation dates.
Baltic Exchange BLNG3 spot rate: This spot assessment is a current reference point. The end-Q4 2026 view remains unresolved until its assessment date.
Baltic BLPG3 freight futures: The published call names BLPG3 freight futures. The related spot assessment is shown for context only; it does not assess the futures call or establish its end-Q4 result.
JKM LNG spot (Platts): The spot forecast is assessed at the end of Q4 2026. This quote and the move from the report reference are indicative, rather than verified Platts physical spot assessments.
New York Harbor diesel to average US$4.50–4.75 a gallon from 18 January to 18 April 2027.
Base case for the 2027 average Brent price.