Report · Energy policy & security
European Wind Power: Energy Security, Industrial Sovereignty and Resilience Beyond Decarbonisation
Wind power’s role in Europe extends beyond decarbonisation. The report examines how France, Germany and the UK are using it to strengthen energy security and domestic supply chains.
Co-authored with Michael Wu.
Full report: 10-minute read.
Summary
The Iran war and disruption at Hormuz strengthened the energy-security case for European wind power. France launched a 12 GW renewable tender round, including 10 GW of offshore wind, with criteria that favour European-sourced components. Germany raised its onshore wind auction volumes and described energy policy as security policy. In the UK, wind supplied around 42% of power in the first three months of 2026, against around 33% a year earlier, reducing the system’s exposure to gas prices.
Our position was that wind is increasingly valued as a source of energy that is less exposed to geopolitical disruption, in addition to its role in decarbonisation. The outlook was positive for the following few years, with permitting and grid bottlenecks as the main obstacles.
Key findings
Energy sovereignty now includes supply chains. France’s tender limits how many strategic offshore wind components can come from China.
UK gas-fired generation fell by nearly 26% between March 2025 and March 2026. New wind and solar capacity helped to displace gas generation that would otherwise have been needed.
WindEurope projects 343 GW of installed wind capacity in the EU by 2030, against a target of 425 GW, largely because of permitting delays. The report judged acceleration the more likely outcome.
What would change the view
Would weaken the view
- Permitting worsens or stays the same and bottlenecks remain unresolved, leaving EU wind output well below its target.
Would strengthen it
- EU member states significantly fast-track permits, increase investment and resolve grid bottlenecks, letting the EU close in on its 2030 target.
Conditions as set out in the report when it was published.
Read the full report for the complete analysis.
Read the full report at 6:05 MarketsDated analysis from April 2026. Views reflect the information available at the time and have not been updated. Nothing here is investment advice.